Evidence of an Opportunity

Have you ever tried to solve a problem, only to find that nothing was working and you just wasted an hour only to be no closer to a solution?  The only thing worse is waiting until you’ve wasted even more time to realize that nothing will pay off.

Instead of committing to a particular solution and a particular problem, this blog is often focused on identifying the right problem to solve. As of a recent meeting with a client, I have a new way to highlight which problems are worth solving. That technique is to spell out your evidence that a particular situation can be improved.

Take one of my tasks on the evening of my writing: space management in my freezer. I wanted to fit a few pizza crusts into the freezer. Rather than just smashing them in or immediately buying an extra freezer, I hypothesized that the problem had to do with not taking the time to sort and organize my current freezer space. My evidence that sorting and organizing would improve my situation boiled down to “well, I haven’t tried lately to go through everything, so I think my odds are good that I’ll be able to make quite a bit more space.”

Next, I tested my hypothesis. 20 minutes of work later, I found a few packages to toss out, and my remaining food was organized. Unfortunately, I also found that my prior evidence was wrong. While my freezer is now more organized, there is very little additional space. Fortunately, I can reassess my evidence and see that it is now invalid. I thought I could get more space by organizing things, but that was mostly not true. Oh well… If I had instead lost track of the evidence, I might have concluded that I should keep organizing and sorting until I have as much space as I wanted to. Hours later I don’t think I would have been better off than I am now.

This notion of evidence has been helping me identify core issues in work and daily life. It’s a scientific approach to problem solving as I can consider different (and possibly contradictory) bits of evidence and decide what is most likely based on what I know. Any time there is significant uncertainty, I can strategize if it’s worth it to invest in reducing that uncertainty.

To take my freezer example a bit further: In the process of sorting I also gathered additional information that could lend itself to a new hypothesis. If I still want to improve my space management, I have three remaining tools at my disposal: Have less stuff in my existing freezer space, have different stuff in my existing freezer space, or buy an additional freezer. In any case I can evaluate if the evidence supports a given action improving my space management.

Buying a new freezer seems like the most obvious way to solve the problem. More empty space = easier space management. On the other hand, you might also know the expression “if you build it, they will come.” I know myself and while I have gotten better at buying things we will eat, eventually the freezer constraint is what prompts me to cycle the more specialty foods. As a result, I have held off on getting another freezer since I expect it would just encourage bad organizational habits.

Using my inventory and forecasting expertise, I can also look at my current capacity and how I have chosen to use it. These days I have relatively little in the freezer that we won’t eat. Given my current target mins and maxes of our favorites foods and the limited amount of extraneous stuff, I can assess if I have evidence that additional storage space is necessary. Looking at my existing inventory, I found a few things above the maxes, which is evidence to me that my current freezer space is sufficient if I keep good habits.

Ultimately, I used empirical data and system models to conclude that I should mostly keep doing what I’m doing. But like the scientific method, I am always open to the idea that new evidence could give me the opportunity to improve my situation. This is the key of clearly identifying your evidence before diving into an improvement.

What do you think? Have you had a time when you ignored the evidence and only ended up worse off? How about the opposite where you persevered and against the odds, your efforts paid off?