Facing the Unknown

When you’re making a decision, one of the trickiest parts can be dealing with the unknown. Will I like this new job more, or should I stick with the old one? Which investment will make me the most money? Will one brand of tool last longer, or another?

It helped me immensely when I came to terms with the nature of decisions made under uncertainty in that you will never have all the information you want before having to make a choice. Not only could I forgive myself for not making the right choice, but I also changed how I interpreted my options.

An example I like has to do with predicting the future. We would all like the ability to pick tomorrow’s lottery numbers, but unfortunately, the only time we get enough information to make a good prediction is after the event, when it’s useless.

Decision making with unknowns means some part of your future is kind of like the lottery. Any choice I make with uncertainty has a risk that I made the wrong call in hindsight, even if I made the right call with what I knew at the time. Other parts of the decision are known; or at least can be known if you put in the effort. I focus my energy on the parts of my choice that depend on those known aspects.

It also helps to think carefully about how a single decision can often be broken down into a series of actions. Picking lottery tickets is a very one-shot kind of situation. In most other cases you have more flexibility for how you break down the decision.

The first question I ask myself is how the unknowns would change my choices. If I hate my current job enough, I will be much more willing to take a chance on something new. If I like my current job well enough though, the unknown will be a bigger driver of my decision.

If the unknown is a big deal, my next step is to consider how I could lower my risk, either by reducing those unknowns or reducing their possible negative effects.

A lot of the time I decide what would really serve me best is to put in some effort to reduce the unknowns. Reviews online or referrals can help up your confidence that you’re making the right choice of product to buy even if ultimately there’s still a bit of a gamble for your outcomes.

The last piece I like to be aware of is if this is truly a lottery ticket situation or not. If you get locked into “take the new job or stay with the old one” you can miss the many, many, many, other options you have. Maybe you can ask for an extra meeting to learn more about the possible new company. Or you can change how you approach your current job if you realize you like it except for one aspect you could change. Who knows what options you might discover if you take the time to explore!

I think of good decision making under uncertainty as mostly about recognizing the difference between the knowable and not. If something is knowable but not known, I want to be a good steward of my own time. Pursuing that knowledge may be the right call. Other times hedging against the unknown or simply accepting the risk is better.

Once I’ve made a choice, the only reason left to be upset if it doesn’t work out is if there was actually an error in my decision making. When I have a bad outcome which is merely the result of bad luck, it gives me space to gracefully accept the loss. Just like I don’t get mad most years when my March madness bracket is one of the worst in my group, you can’t win them all.