Time Changes Everything, Including Your Decisions

Sometimes timing can have a big impact on your choice of what problem to solve.

Last weekend my son told me his bike was broken, but in a manageable way. The gears were off by 1, and it really liked to slip out of 4^th . I’ve fixed this kind of problem on my bike in the past, but these days I’d rather let the professionals handle it.

I called the only highly rated shop open on a Saturday. I wanted to know the wait time for a seemingly simple fix. The repair guy let me know that they were looking at a week turnaround time, and it might not be simple at all if they needed to order parts. Not wanting to take the bike out of commission for a week, I answered I’d call around and see what my other options were. He, being a salesperson, assured me that a week is normal this time of year and I didn’t really need to look elsewhere.

On Monday I called a different shop. They currently have a 2-week turnaround time. However, unlike the first shop, the repair guy at the second place let me know that they recommend waiting if you can. In October they can turn a bike around in 2-3 days. If it has to happen now, you’ve got a much longer wait.

So few things in life are black-and-white. I’d like to have the bike fixed, and I don’t want to risk breaking it worse myself since it’s usable today. I’d like to get it done by a pro, but not if it will have a really long turnaround time. Fundamentally I have a someday requirement to fix the bike, but only preferences for when it happens.

There are other situations that have a similar flavor. Seasonality or time of day can drive huge spikes in demand. My energy company recently shifted to Time-Of-Use billing where I’m supposed to remember not to run my clothes dryer in the afternoon. If you show up at Costco on a weekend, you can look forward to a long line at the checkout. The sprinkler blow-out people are packed the week the first serious frost hits.

Knowing my bike tune-up need is hitting in peak season, I knew my key question was “what are the extra costs in time or money to get it handled now?” At other times I’ve been unaware of the seasonal cycle and accidentally incurred the urgency premium because I didn’t consider the alternative.

Timing is one of the most subtle but effective levers of decision making. The same decision one week later might have no effect, but it can also make a world of difference. It can change the value or cost enormously, and even what the best option is.

Postscript: I wrote this post in early August. I scheduled it for the next slot in my calendar, which was the end of September. I read it when it was published and laughed because 6 weeks later, “October” is just around the corner. Again, timing is everything!